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6 June 2011
20110605 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20110607

5 Active Regions

Flare Forecast
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class


Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's (FPS) probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41 , along with full forecast verification testing).

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

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Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
Number of Spots
11226 S21W52
β/β Dao/Dsi 0100/0190 10/19 C1.2(01:28) / -
11227 S22W40
β/β Dso/Cso 0030/0060 05/07 -
11228 N18W35
β/β Dso/Dao 0060/0090 05/07 -
11232 N09E06
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0040/0070 03/01 -
11233 S18W43
α/α Axx/Axx 0000/0000 01/01 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.0(09:42)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 6-Jun-2011 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 6-Jun-2011 20:30 UT .