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 17 July 2011
⇐20110716 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20110718⇒

NOAA
10 Active Regions
11245
11250
11251
11252
11254
11256
11248
11249
11253
11255
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11245 N14W77
(893",211") 		β/α Bxo/Axx 0010/0000 02/01 -
11250 S26W46
(611",-460") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0080/0080 01/04 -
11251 N16W08
(126",188") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0070/0100 02/01 -
11252 N25E20
(-293",335") 		α/β Axx/Bxo 0000/0010 01/03 -
11254 S22E24
(-357",-417") 		β/β Dso/Cao 0050/0050 07/05 -
11256 N08E09
(-146",57") 		β/β Cro/Dro 0020/0020 02/03 -
11248 N20W70
(834",298") 		/ / / / -
11249 S16W85
(903",-265") 		/ / / / -
11253 N14W66
(837",198") 		/ / / / -
11255 N18E07
(-109",220") 		/β /Bxo /0000 /03 -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 17-Jul-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 17-Jul-2011 20:30 UT .