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 1 September 2011
⇐20110831 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20110902⇒

NOAA
11 Active Regions
11274
11277
11279
11280
11281
11282
11283
11284
11285
11275
11276
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11274 Hrx 5(5) 0(1) 0(1)
11277 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11279 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11280 Cro 9(10) 1(1) 0(1)
11281 Csi 19(25) 13(5) 0(1)
11282 Dso 20(25) 4(5) 0(1)
11283 Cso 12(25) 2(5) 0(1)
11284 Bxo 5(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11285 Axx 2(1) 0(1) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11274 N19W84
(894",295") 		α/β Hrx/Bxo 0030/0010 01/05 -
11277 N18W26
(397",190") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0060/0050 01/02 -
11279 N13W18
(287",102") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0080/0080 01/02 -
11280 N12W49
(703",119") 		β/ Cro/ 0010/ 02/ -
11281 S20E16
(-247",-431") 		β/β Csi/Bxo 0100/0010 11/05 -
11282 N25W25
(365",301") 		β/β Dso/Bxo 0050/0010 09/03 -
11283 N12E49
(-703",119") 		β/α Cso/Hsx 0100/0060 02/01 C2.0(12:42)
C2.0(18:13)
/C2.2(11:16)
11284 S17W74
(874",-307") 		β/α Bxo/Axx 0010/0010 03/01 -
11285 N29W60
(721",405") 		α/- Axx/--- 0010/---- 01/-- -
11275 N07W82
(934",98") 		/ / / / -
11276 N20W75
(863",293") 		/ / / / -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 1-Sep-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 1-Sep-2011 20:30 UT .