show styles

 16 September 2011
⇐20110915 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20110917⇒

NOAA
11 Active Regions
11287
11289
11290
11291
11292
11293
11294
11295
11296
11297
11298
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11289 Cho 15(0) 2(0) 1(0)
11290 Axx 2(0) 0(0) 0(0)
11291 Cro 9(10) 1(1) 0(1)
11292 Hrx 5(5) 0(1) 0(1)
11293 Dao 23(25) 6(5) 0(1)
11294 Cro 9(10) 1(1) 0(1)
11295 Dai 38(45) 11(10) 2(1)
11296 Dai 38(25) 11(5) 2(1)
11297 Dao 23(25) 6(5) 0(1)
11298 Dso 20(15) 4(1) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11287 S28W91
(841",-442") 		α/β Hsx/Dso 0010/0170 01/04 -
11289 N22W52
(698",287") 		β/β Cho/Cho 0300/0400 05/09 -
11290 S13W68
(863",-256") 		α/β Axx/Cro 0010/0030 02/04 -
11291 N22W82
(876",339") 		β/ Cro/ 0050/ 03/ -
11292 N10W05
(82",47") 		α/β Hrx/Cro 0020/0030 01/02 -
11293 N17W64
(821",227") 		β/β Dao/Cso 0050/0020 05/03 -
11294 S17W27
(415",-379") 		β/β Cro/Cso 0020/0050 07/07 -
11295 N22E17
(-259",249") 		β/β Dai/Cso 0130/0050 16/04 -
11296 N27E28
(-400",337") 		β/β Dai/Dso 0130/0060 08/03 -
11297 S18W77
(884",-318") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0050/0040 04/04 -
11298 N16E25
(-389",157") 		β/β Dso/Cso 0040/0040 05/04 -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 16-Sep-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 16-Sep-2011 21:30 UT .