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 14 October 2011
⇐20111013 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111015⇒

NOAA
10 Active Regions
11309
11312
11313
11314
11315
11316
11317
11318
11319
11320
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11309 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11312 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11313 Cso 12(20) 2(5) 0(1)
11314 Cko 26(40) 6(10) 0(1)
11315 Bxo 5(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11316 Dko 33(20) 15(5) 2(1)
11317 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11318 Dso 20(20) 4(5) 0(1)
11319 Cso 12(60) 2(10) 0(1)
11320 Bxo 5(10) 1(1) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11309 N23W89
(885",372") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0070/0040 01/01 -
11312 N23W56
(735",323") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0190/0210 01/03 -
11313 S14W52
(737",-291") 		βγ/βγ Cso/Dso 0110/0140 10/20 /C1.0(09:37)
C2.2(11:29)
11314 N27E07
(-104",348") 		β/β Cko/Cho 0300/0370 03/04 C1.1(08:51)
/C1.2(07:07)
C1.5(23:59)
11315 N19W45
(644",246") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 03/04 -
11316 S12E14
(-228",-294") 		β/β Dko/Dsi 0310/0160 10/12 C1.0(06:26)
11317 S27E27
(-390",-514") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0070/0070 01/01 -
11318 N20W32
(480",249") 		β/β Dso/Dao 0050/0010 04/03 -
11319 N10E15
(-246",72") 		β/β Cso/Dai 0080/0030 11/11 /C2.0(00:25)
C1.3(03:00)
C1.6(15:05)
C2.0(18:16)
11320 S22W53
(713",-414") 		β/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 03/-- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 14-Oct-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 14-Oct-2011 23:47 UT .