show styles

 16 October 2011
⇐20111015 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111017⇒

NOAA
10 Active Regions
11312
11313
11314
11316
11317
11318
11319
11320
11321
11322
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11312 Hsx 4(0) 1(0) 0(0)
11313 Dso 20(0) 4(0) 0(0)
11314 Cho 15(0) 2(0) 1(0)
11316 Dhi 30(0) 13(0) 0(0)
11317 Hsx 4(0) 1(0) 0(0)
11318 Cso 12(0) 2(0) 0(0)
11319 Eai 43(0) 19(0) 1(0)
11320 Axx 2(0) 0(0) 0(0)
11321 Bxo 5(0) 1(0) 0(0)
11322 Bxo 5(0) 1(0) 0(0)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11312 N23W82
(877",361") 		α/α Hsx/Hhx 0180/0270 01/01 -
11313 S16W78
(905",-283") 		β/β Dso/Dso 0070/0080 05/05 -
11314 N28W18
(263",369") 		β/β Cho/Cho 0330/0280 04/06 -
11316 S12W11
(180",-292") 		β/β Dhi/Dhc 0340/0330 11/09 /C1.5(18:13)
11317 S26E01
(-15",-508") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0080/0070 01/01 C1.4(13:51)
11318 N25W60
(756",361") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0020/0040 04/07 /C1.4(04:19)
11319 N11W13
(213",90") 		β/β Eai/Esi 0240/0080 30/20 C1.8(01:35)
C1.9(03:28)
C1.3(04:27)
C2.8(06:41)
C1.8(11:52)
C6.3(15:04)
/C1.3(01:07)
C1.6(12:36)
C2.0(13:18)
C5.0(13:56)
C2.3(16:10)
11320 S21W79
(882",-360") 		α/β Axx/Cro 0010/0030 04/04 /C1.1(11:07)
C1.3(17:24)
11321 N13E38
(-579",141") 		β/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 02/-- -
11322 S27W65
(778",-471") 		β/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 04/-- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C3.7(14:28) C4.4(15:53) C1.9(17:28)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 16-Oct-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 16-Oct-2011 23:47 UT .