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 19 October 2011
⇐20111018 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111020⇒

NOAA
9 Active Regions
11314
11316
11317
11318
11319
11321
11322
11323
11324
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11314 Cso 12(10) 2(0) 0(0)
11316 Dao 23(45) 6(10) 0(1)
11317 Hsx 4(5) 1(0) 0(0)
11318 Cso 12(0) 2(0) 0(0)
11319 Eki 48(60) 24(15) 5(1)
11321 Cao 16(10) 2(1) 0(0)
11322 Hsx 4(0) 1(0) 0(0)
11324 Eai 43(90) 19(40) 1(5)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

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Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11314 N26W57
(727",375") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0240/0230 04/01 C3.5(20:31)
11316 S12W51
(733",-257") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0140/0150 07/06 -
11317 S27W39
(541",-500") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0050/0050 01/01 -
11318 N19W91
(910",313") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0040/0030 02/02 -
11319 N11W53
(756",128") 		βγ/βγ Eki/Eki 0280/0420 19/32 /C1.9(03:31)
11321 S14W05
(81",-322") 		β/β Cao/Cro 0030/0020 06/03 -
11322 S27W91
(857",-433") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0030/0070 01/03 -
11323 N24E27
(-400",315") 		β/α Cso/Axx 0020/0010 02/02 -
11324 N10E49
(-717",106") 		β/α Eai/Hax 0110/0090 12/02 C1.1(01:33)
C5.5(04:49)
C2.4(16:31)
C3.4(18:45)
C1.7(19:55)
/C1.8(04:09)
C2.0(06:39)

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.6(13:00)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 19-Oct-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 19-Oct-2011 23:47 UT .