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 22 October 2011
⇐20111021 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111023⇒

NOAA
12 Active Regions
11314
11316
11317
11319
11321
11324
11325
11326
11327
11328
11329
11323
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11314 Hsx 4(25) 1(10) 0(1)
11317 Hsx 4(5) 1(0) 0(0)
11319 Eho 36(10) 11(1) 0(0)
11324 Eac 49(95) 28(55) 0(10)
11325 Dko 33(45) 15(10) 2(0)
11327 Dao 23(20) 6(5) 0(0)
11328 Dao 23(5) 6(0) 0(0)
11329 Cso 12(1) 2(0) 0(0)
11323 / 0(0) 0(0) 0(0)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11314 N29W91
(842",466") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0180/0210 01/01 M1.3(09:18)
11316 S11W91
(945",-181") 		β/β Bxo/Dso 0010/0060 02/06 C1.6(01:19)
C2.3(02:57)
11317 S26W79
(850",-436") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0070/0060 01/01 -
11319 N12W91
(942",201") 		βγ/βγ Eho/Eho 0330/0330 07/10 /C1.5(13:40)
C2.7(17:00)
M1.3(12:53)
11321 S16W48
(690",-322") 		α/β Hrx/Bxo 0010/0010 02/04 -
11324 N10E13
(-214",82") 		βγ/βγ Eac/Ekc 0290/0360 34/27 /C2.4(08:53)
11325 N15E40
(-600",183") 		β/β Dko/Dko 0260/0270 06/04 C2.2(19:11)
C1.7(20:39)
11326 N16W62
(819",225") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0030/0010 03/02 -
11327 S21W17
(264",-424") 		β/β Dao/Bxi 0100/0010 08/05 -
11328 N17W07
(112",197") 		β/β Dao/Bxo 0040/0010 06/01 -
11329 S30W56
(693",-523") 		β/- Cso/--- 0050/---- 04/-- -
11323 N24W14
(213",313") 		/ / / / -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.7(02:11) C2.5(03:35)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 22-Oct-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 22-Oct-2011 23:47 UT .