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 23 October 2011
⇐20111022 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111024⇒

NOAA
12 Active Regions
11314
11317
11319
11323
11324
11325
11327
11328
11329
11330
11321
11326
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11314 Hsx 4(0) 1(0) 0(0)
11319 Cso 12(0) 2(0) 0(0)
11324 Eac 49(0) 28(0) 0(0)
11325 Dai 38(0) 11(0) 2(0)
11327 Dao 23(0) 6(0) 0(0)
11330 Dso 20(0) 4(0) 0(0)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11314 N29W91
(843",466") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0090/0180 01/01 -
11317 S25W91
(873",-404") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0050/0070 01/01 -
11319 N13W91
(939",217") 		β/βγ Cso/Eho 0040/0330 05/07 -
11323 N25W25
(370",335") 		α/ Axx/ 0010/ 01/ -
11324 N10W00
(0",81") 		βγ/βγ Eac/Eac 0280/0290 28/34 -
11325 N15E29
(-453",175") 		β/β Dai/Dko 0180/0260 08/06 -
11327 S21W29
(437",-416") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0130/0100 11/08 -
11328 N17W20
(316",203") 		β/β Bxo/Dao 0010/0040 03/06 -
11329 S29W69
(788",-493") 		α/β Axx/Cso 0010/0050 01/04 -
11330 N04E52
(-759",13") 		β/- Dso/--- 0210/---- 05/-- -
11321 S16W62
(819",-304") 		/α /Hrx /0010 /02 -
11326 N16W76
(900",244") 		/β /Cso /0030 /03 -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 23-Oct-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 23-Oct-2011 23:47 UT .