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 4 November 2011
⇐20111103 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111105⇒

NOAA
9 Active Regions
11330
11332
11334
11335
11336
11337
11338
11339
11333
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11330 Dso 20(0) 4(0) 0(0)
11334 Cso 12(5) 2(1) 0(1)
11337 Dso 20(5) 4(1) 0(1)
11338 Ehi 50(35) 22(5) 0(1)
11339 Ekc 54(85) 41(60) 13(10)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11330 N08W91
(957",135") 		β/β Dso/Cso 0050/0210 02/02 -
11332 N31W67
(764",474") 		α/α Hrx/Axx 0020/0010 01/01 -
11334 N12W48
(705",156") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0070/0080 03/06 -
11335 N12W40
(610",150") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 03/05 -
11336 N11W02
(33",118") 		β/β Cso/Dro 0020/0030 08/05 -
11337 N17E12
(-193",219") 		β/β Dso/Bxo 0040/0010 07/03 -
11338 S14E26
(-412",-293") 		βγ/β Ehi/Dao 0375/0230 20/05 /C2.1(09:38)
C3.8(14:48)
11339 N18E43
(-629",251") 		βγδ/βγ Ekc/Dkc 1400/0560 25/04 C3.8(00:01)
C1.8(10:50)
C2.9(19:25)
C4.6(22:25)
M1.0(20:31)
/C3.4(01:24)
C2.9(03:18)
C9.2(22:56)
11333 N10W91
(952",168") 		/β /Bxo /0010 /03 -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C5.4(00:26) C8.6(03:22) /C4.4(00:05) C3.2(07:11) C3.4(10:03) C1.5(14:03) C2.2(17:57) C4.5(18:47) C5.4(22:12) C5.8(22:28) M2.5(10:58) M2.1(23:28) X1.9(20:16)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 4-Nov-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 4-Nov-2011 23:47 UT .