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 12 November 2011
⇐20111111 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111113⇒

NOAA
9 Active Regions
11338
11339
11340
11341
11342
11343
11344
11345
11337
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11338 Dao 23(25) 6(5) 0(1)
11339 Ekc 54(85) 41(25) 13(5)
11340 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11341 Cso 12(15) 2(1) 0(1)
11342 Cso 12(5) 2(1) 0(1)
11343 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11344 Dso 20(65) 4(10) 0(1)
11345 Dso 20(20) 4(5) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

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Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11338 S13W82
(935",-224") 		β/β Dao/Cso 0140/0190 02/04 -
11339 N18W62
(815",275") 		βγ/βγ Ekc/Fkc 0590/1020 22/45 C2.5(07:42)
C1.8(16:38)
/C1.3(03:48)
C1.6(12:25)
11340 S09W31
(494",-197") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0080/0080 01/01 -
11341 N08W12
(200",83") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0090/0110 07/03 -
11342 N16W24
(380",221") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0100/0180 02/05 -
11343 N26W02
(30",378") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0120/0180 01/01 -
11344 S18W59
(791",-325") 		β/β Dso/Cro 0060/0060 06/07 C1.8(18:18)
C2.4(21:18)
C2.4(22:37)
/C4.2(06:11)
C5.4(16:40)
C1.3(23:31)
11345 S26W43
(595",-460") 		β/β Dso/Dro 0060/0090 06/06 -
11337 N17W91
(926",283") 		/ / / / -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 12-Nov-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 12-Nov-2011 23:47 UT .