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 19 November 2011
⇐20111118 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111120⇒

NOAA
11 Active Regions
11341
11343
11346
11347
11350
11351
11352
11353
11354
11355
11349
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11341 Axx 2(0) 0(0) 0(0)
11343 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11346 Cso 12(15) 2(1) 0(1)
11347 Axx 2(1) 0(1) 0(1)
11350 Dso 20(15) 4(1) 0(1)
11351 Axx 2(1) 0(1) 0(1)
11352 Eso 19(15) 6(1) 0(1)
11353 Hrx 5(5) 0(1) 0(1)
11354 Dso 20(60) 4(10) 0(1)
11355 Cao 16(5) 2(1) 0(1)
11349 / 0(5) 0(1) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11341 N08W91
(960",135") 		α/β Axx/Dso 0010/0080 01/03 -
11343 N28W90
(856",455") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0050/0050 01/01 /C2.7(02:04)
11346 S17W31
(479",-316") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0080/0060 07/03 /C1.1(16:38)
C2.1(23:53)
11347 N08W38
(593",104") 		α/α Axx/Hsx 0010/0020 01/01 -
11350 N26E02
(-30",391") 		β/β Dso/Dso 0070/0080 07/02 -
11351 S23W18
(277",-414") 		α/ Axx/ 0010/ 04/ -
11352 S23E27
(-407",-412") 		β/β Eso/Eso 0170/0140 04/03 -
11353 N07E43
(-659",90") 		α/α Hrx/Hsx 0030/0030 01/01 /C2.0(19:04)
11354 S15E42
(-629",-279") 		β/β Dso/Dao 0210/0130 08/06 C1.4(11:19)
C3.9(19:48)
C1.6(20:47)
/C2.6(03:28)
C2.7(17:07)
11355 N14E59
(-809",215") 		β/- Cao/--- 0060/---- 03/-- C1.7(07:53)
11349 N17W71
(878",271") 		/ / / / C1.0(01:21)

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.4(11:41) C1.1(13:50) C2.7(14:17) C4.5(22:19) /C3.7(00:00) C2.5(06:46)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 19-Nov-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 19-Nov-2011 23:47 UT .