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 4 December 2011
⇐20111203 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111205⇒

NOAA
7 Active Regions
11358
11361
11362
11363
11364
11365
11366
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11358 Cso 12(15) 2(1) 0(1)
11361 Dai 38(15) 11(1) 2(1)
11362 Eso 19(60) 6(15) 0(1)
11363 Ehi 50(80) 22(20) 0(1)
11364 Hsx 4(10) 1(1) 0(1)
11365 Dai 38(65) 11(15) 2(1)
11366 Hsx 4(10) 1(1) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

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Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11358 N19W82
(911",316") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0050/0090 03/03 /C1.6(10:40)
11361 N19W59
(790",313") 		β/β Dai/Dso 0090/0060 11/07 C1.2(08:30)
11362 N08W20
(331",129") 		β/β Eso/Dsi 0220/0170 16/12 C1.7(13:21)
C4.8(16:05)
/C1.5(03:31)
11363 S22E02
(-31",-372") 		βγ/β Ehi/Ehi 0330/0250 29/15 /C1.2(05:48)
C1.3(21:15)
11364 N18E06
(-97",294") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0060/0040 01/04 -
11365 N20W13
(206",327") 		β/β Dai/Cso 0060/0020 07/05 -
11366 N17E51
(-725",280") 		α/- Hsx/--- 0060/---- 01/-- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.3(19:37)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 4-Dec-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 4-Dec-2011 23:47 UT .