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 9 December 2011
⇐20111208 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111210⇒

NOAA
14 Active Regions
11362
11363
11364
11365
11366
11367
11371
11372
11373
11374
11375
11368
11369
11370
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11362 Cso 12(10) 2(1) 0(1)
11363 Dho 29(35) 2(5) 2(1)
11364 Dso 20(20) 4(1) 0(1)
11365 Cso 12(10) 2(1) 0(1)
11366 Cso 12(15) 2(1) 0(1)
11372 Bxo 5(35) 1(5) 0(1)
11373 Dro 17(15) 5(1) 0(1)
11374 Cso 12(65) 2(15) 0(1)
11375 Bxo 5(35) 1(5) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11362 N07W86
(964",118") 		β/β Cso/Eso 0060/0180 03/03 -
11363 S21W61
(796",-348") 		β/β Dho/Ehi 0270/0400 07/12 -
11364 N17W57
(782",287") 		β/α Dso/Hsx 0060/0060 05/01 -
11365 N16W91
(935",268") 		β/α Cso/Axx 0070/0010 02/01 -
11366 N18W13
(209",305") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0040/0070 02/02 -
11367 S26W29
(425",-425") 		β/β Cso/Bxo 0030/0010 03/04 -
11371 N09W15
(250",156") 		α/α Hrx/Hrx 0010/0010 01/01 -
11372 N10W00
(0",173") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0000/0000 02/02 -
11373 S30W53
(675",-486") 		β/- Dro/--- 0020/---- 02/-- -
11374 S16E54
(-759",-267") 		β/- Cso/--- 0150/---- 02/-- C3.1(13:05)
11375 N08E56
(-801",137") 		β/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 03/-- -
11368 S16W01
(16",-266") 		/ / / / -
11369 N22W13
(203",369") 		/ / / / -
11370 S24W31
(459",-394") 		/β /Bxo /0010 /06 -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: /C1.0(00:05) C1.2(01:54)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 9-Dec-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 9-Dec-2011 23:47 UT .