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 11 December 2011
⇐20111210 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111212⇒

NOAA
12 Active Regions
11363
11364
11366
11367
11372
11374
11375
11368
11369
11370
11371
11373
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11363 Hhx 6(15) 2(0) 0(0)
11364 Cso 12(10) 2(0) 0(0)
11366 Hsx 4(10) 1(0) 0(0)
11367 Hsx 4(10) 1(0) 0(0)
11372 Dso 20(10) 4(0) 0(0)
11374 Hsx 4(45) 1(10) 0(0)
11375 Cso 12(35) 2(5) 0(0)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11363 S20W88
(914",-332") 		α/β Hhx/Dho 0250/0280 01/03 -
11364 N18W85
(923",301") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0050/0080 02/03 -
11366 N18W41
(609",307") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0050/0050 01/02 -
11367 S18W61
(811",-298") 		α/ Hsx/ 0010/ 01/ -
11372 N08W24
(393",143") 		β/β Dso/Dso 0040/0040 09/06 -
11374 S17E27
(-424",-279") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0140/0160 02/02 /C1.0(23:00)
C1.6(23:57)
11375 N09E25
(-408",160") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0080/0070 04/03 /C1.2(06:24)
C1.2(18:38)
11368 S16W29
(455",-262") 		/ / / / -
11369 N22W41
(594",371") 		/ / / / -
11370 S24W59
(764",-393") 		/ / / / -
11371 N09W43
(658",158") 		/ / / / -
11373 S31W79
(820",-500") 		/β /Bxo /0020 /05 -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 11-Dec-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 11-Dec-2011 23:47 UT .