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 24 December 2011
⇐20111223 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111225⇒

NOAA
9 Active Regions
11376
11381
11382
11383
11384
11385
11386
11377
11380
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11376 Dko 33(5) 15(1) 2(1)
11381 Dao 23(5) 6(1) 0(1)
11382 Dsi 36(10) 15(1) 0(1)
11383 Axx 2(10) 0(1) 0(1)
11384 Dho 29(40) 2(10) 2(1)
11385 Dso 20(5) 4(1) 0(1)
11386 Hsx 4(20) 1(1) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11376 N16W91
(936",267") 		β/β Dko/Dko 0330/0440 07/13 C4.9(11:25)
C1.5(19:10)
/C1.8(04:10)
C3.4(19:12)
11381 S20W57
(770",-315") 		β/β Dao/Dai 0040/0180 08/15 /C1.6(21:35)
11382 S18W48
(691",-279") 		β/β Dsi/Dai 0100/0050 15/09 -
11383 N03W00
(0",86") 		α/α Axx/Hrx 0010/0020 03/01 -
11384 N13E12
(-198",254") 		β/β Dho/Dko 0500/0300 12/17 /C1.5(10:09)
11385 S31W14
(202",-474") 		β/- Dso/--- 0030/---- 07/-- -
11386 S16E59
(-805",-251") 		α/- Hsx/--- 0030/---- 01/-- C5.2(08:27)
C1.1(11:04)
11377 N12W91
(953",201") 		/ / / / -
11380 S21W24
(371",-320") 		/ / / / -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 24-Dec-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 24-Dec-2011 22:00 UT .