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 15 January 2012
⇐20120114 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20120116⇒

NOAA
10 Active Regions
11391
11395
11396
11397
11398
11399
11400
11401
11402
11394
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11395 Hsx 4(10) 1(1) 0(1)
11396 Dao 23(20) 6(1) 0(1)
11397 Dao 23(20) 6(1) 0(1)
11398 Dao 23(25) 6(1) 0(1)
11399 Cao 16(5) 2(1) 0(1)
11400 Cro 9(10) 1(1) 0(1)
11401 Hsx 4(75) 1(15) 0(1)
11402 Hsx 4(45) 1(5) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

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Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11391 N12W91
(953",200") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0120/0120 09/11 C2.3(02:06)
C1.0(10:57)
11395 N21W31
(470",412") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0020/0040 02/02 -
11396 N27W07
(106",512") 		β/β Dao/Dai 0110/0070 15/10 /C2.1(03:19)
11397 S20E01
(-16",-260") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0030/0040 04/04 -
11398 N14W35
(544",298") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0050/0015 13/04 -
11399 S24E56
(-740",-356") 		β/- Cao/--- 0030/---- 04/-- -
11400 S14W17
(277",-163") 		β/- Cro/--- 0010/---- 03/-- -
11401 N15E60
(-817",289") 		α/- Hsx/--- 0040/---- 02/-- C1.5(01:23)
C2.1(02:48)
11402 N26E62
(-775",459") 		α/- Hsx/--- 0100/---- 03/-- -
11394 N18W83
(920",309") 		/ / / / -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: /C4.1(12:00) C5.8(12:33) C2.8(18:35) C2.1(21:41) C1.1(23:21) M1.4(13:14)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 15-Jan-2012 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 15-Jan-2012 22:00 UT .