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 16 January 2012
⇐20120115 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20120117⇒

NOAA
10 Active Regions
11395
11396
11397
11398
11399
11400
11401
11402
11403
11394
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11395 Hsx 4(5) 1(0) 0(0)
11396 Dao 23(25) 6(5) 0(0)
11398 Dao 23(15) 6(0) 0(0)
11399 Hax 7(5) 2(0) 0(0)
11401 Dai 38(35) 11(5) 2(0)
11402 Dho 29(50) 2(10) 2(0)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11395 N20W44
(638",387") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0010/0020 02/02 -
11396 N25W20
(303",480") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0080/0110 10/15 -
11397 S20W11
(175",-260") 		β/β Cao/Dao 0015/0030 03/04 -
11398 N12W49
(721",253") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0050/0050 09/13 -
11399 S23E41
(-590",-325") 		α/β Hax/Cao 0020/0030 02/04 -
11400 S13W30
(476",-152") 		β/β Cso/Cro 0010/0010 02/03 -
11401 N17E47
(-683",336") 		β/α Dai/Hsx 0200/0040 14/02 C2.5(00:14)
C3.9(08:08)
C5.5(10:31)
C3.0(15:46)
11402 N27E51
(-676",486") 		β/α Dho/Hsx 0270/0100 07/03 -
11403 S19E16
(-255",-245") 		β/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 02/-- -
11394 N18W91
(926",298") 		/ / / / -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C4.1(00:25) C6.2(02:28) C6.5(02:36) /C1.5(01:23) C2.1(02:48) C1.1(23:56)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 16-Jan-2012 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 16-Jan-2012 22:00 UT .