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5 February 2012
20120204 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20120206

NOAA
3 Active Regions

Flare Forecast
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

11410
11413
11414

Cso
Dso
Bxo
FPS
NOAA
12 15
20 15
5 5
FPS
NOAA
2 0
4 0
1 0
FPS
NOAA
0 0
0 0
0 0

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's (FPS) probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41 , along with full forecast verification testing).

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


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Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
11410 N16W58
(774",201")
β/β Cso/Cso 0190/0190 02/04 -
11413 N07W61
(825",59")
β/β Dso/Dso 0070/0090 09/15 -
11414 S06W33
(515",-194")
β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 02/02 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 5-Feb-2012 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 5-Feb-2012 22:00 UT .