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 21 April 2012
⇐20120420 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20120422⇒

NOAA
10 Active Regions
11459
11460
11461
11462
11463
11464
11465
11454
11457
11458
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11459 Dai 38(50) 11(10) 2(1)
11460 Dkc 51(50) 30(10) 8(1)
11461 Bxo 5(10) 1(1) 0(1)
11462 Dho 29(40) 2(5) 2(1)
11463 Cso 12(20) 2(1) 0(1)
11465 Dao 23(30) 6(5) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

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Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11459 S16W13
(207",-184") 		β/β Dai/Dai 0400/0180 40/27 C1.8(20:10)
/C1.6(17:22)
11460 N15W29
(448",317") 		β/β Dkc/Dsi 0450/0180 19/14 C2.4(01:27)
11461 N12E10
(-162",278") 		β/β Bxo/Cso 0010/0030 02/02 -
11462 S25W59
(742",-363") 		β/β Dho/Dso 0410/0050 14/08 C1.0(11:00)
/C1.1(03:15)
11463 S26W78
(839",-401") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0100/0070 09/09 /C1.6(14:49)
11464 N23W26
(386",441") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 02/02 -
11465 S17E25
(-387",-206") 		β/- Dao/--- 0210/---- 06/-- -
11454 S12W84
(928",-189") 		/ / / / -
11457 N20W66
(820",357") 		/ / / / -
11458 N06W33
(518",169") 		/ / / / -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: /C1.5(16:17) C3.3(16:46) C1.0(20:00) C1.6(20:44) C1.4(22:25)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 21-Apr-2012 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 21-Apr-2012 23:00 UT .