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 8 June 2012
⇐20120607 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20120609⇒

NOAA
11 Active Regions
11493
11494
11496
11497
11498
11499
11495
11500
11501
11502
11503
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11493 Eai 43(15) 19(5) 1(1)
11494 Dso 20(15) 4(5) 0(1)
11496 Hax 7(5) 2(1) 0(1)
11497 Dai 38(25) 11(5) 2(1)
11498 Cao 16(15) 2(5) 0(1)
11499 Cai 31(15) 17(5) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11493 N15W47
(669",241") 		βγ/βγ Eai/Esi 0100/0130 09/11 C4.8(07:11)
/C1.1(19:27)
C1.8(19:36)
11494 S18W33
(491",-297") 		βγ/β Dso/Cso 0120/0160 05/08 C7.7(02:51)
/C1.5(05:51)
11496 N16W38
(561",257") 		α/α Hax/Hax 0020/0020 01/01 -
11497 S21W57
(741",-342") 		β/β Dai/Dao 0170/0230 05/07 -
11498 N06W25
(398",94") 		β/β Cao/Cao 0050/0020 04/07 /C1.6(00:06)
C1.0(01:49)
11499 N15W23
(358",240") 		βγ/βγ Cai/Bxi 0020/0020 14/14 /C1.2(02:23)
C2.0(12:06)
C1.1(13:02)
C2.7(14:19)
C9.1(15:29)
11495 S15W88
(912",-244") 		/ / / / /C1.2(00:37)
11500 N09W91
(932",147") 		/ / / / -
11501 N07W44
(653",111") 		/ / / / -
11502 S17W16
(250",-282") 		/α /Axx /0000 /01 -
11503 N09W83
(926",147") 		/α /Axx /0000 /02 -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 8-Jun-2012 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 8-Jun-2012 23:00 UT .