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 11 June 2012
⇐20120610 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20120612⇒

NOAA
12 Active Regions
11493
11494
11496
11497
11499
11504
11505
11506
11507
11498
11501
11502
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11494 Hax 7(1) 2(1) 0(1)
11497 Cao 16(0) 2(0) 0(0)
11499 Cao 16(10) 2(1) 0(1)
11504 Dai 38(80) 11(40) 2(1)
11505 Dao 23(30) 6(10) 0(1)
11506 Cao 16(35) 2(0) 0(0)
11507 Dao 23(80) 6(15) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

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Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11493 N16W91
(907",260") 		α/α Hax/Hax 0060/0050 01/01 -
11494 S16W74
(873",-263") 		α/α Hax/Hkx 0070/0090 01/01 -
11496 N17W76
(877",273") 		α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 01/01 -
11497 S22W91
(875",-353") 		β/β Cao/Cao 0080/0080 06/06 -
11499 N16W57
(763",254") 		βγ/βγ Cao/Cao 0050/0060 11/07 C1.1(04:12)
C1.5(21:01)
/C1.0(01:27)
11504 S18E37
(-542",-301") 		β/β Dai/Cao 0120/0060 07/06 /C1.1(04:39)
C1.3(18:10)
C2.3(19:42)
C1.1(23:16)
M1.3(06:39)
11505 S10E37
(-561",-173") 		β/α Dao/Axx 0050/0030 03/01 -
11506 N11E52
(-732",173") 		β/- Cao/--- 0050/---- 02/-- -
11507 S26E16
(-234",-425") 		β/- Dao/--- 0060/---- 05/-- C1.1(11:25)
C1.0(14:43)
C1.5(15:35)
C1.5(17:01)
C1.5(18:59)
11498 N07W66
(857",110") 		/ / / / -
11501 N07W89
(937",114") 		/ / / / -
11502 S17W58
(767",-282") 		/ / / / -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 11-Jun-2012 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 11-Jun-2012 23:00 UT .