show styles

 3 August 2012
⇐20120802 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20120804⇒

NOAA
12 Active Regions
11528
11529
11530
11532
11535
11536
11537
11538
11539
11527
11533
11534
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11528 Hrx 5(10) 0(1) 0(1)
11529 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11530 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11532 Cso 12(35) 2(5) 0(1)
11535 Dso 20(20) 4(1) 0(1)
11536 Eao 31(20) 9(1) 0(1)
11537 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11538 Dao 23(70) 6(10) 0(1)
11539 Cro 9(50) 1(1) 0(1)
11534 / 0(0) 0(0) 0(0)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11528 N17W84
(899",265") 		α/α Hrx/Hrx 0020/0010 01/01 -
11529 S11W76
(901",-203") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0030/0040 01/01 -
11530 S19W66
(817",-344") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0120/0120 01/01 /C1.5(12:10)
11532 S18W42
(603",-361") 		β/β Cso/Dko 0230/0280 05/09 C1.3(11:52)
/C1.5(04:53)
11535 N17E10
(-157",182") 		βγ/βγ Dso/Eai 0120/0150 10/12 C3.0(21:20)
11536 S23W26
(382",-450") 		β/β Eao/Eao 0070/0100 06/07 -
11537 N12E36
(-545",117") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0050/0040 01/01 -
11538 S23E30
(-436",-447") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0220/0160 07/06 C1.4(07:52)
11539 S22E47
(-642",-415") 		β/- Cro/--- 0030/---- 04/-- C2.8(05:51)
C1.4(16:05)
11527 N27W86
(840",420") 		/ / / / -
11533 S28W76
(810",-462") 		/ / / / -
11534 N17W29
(439",192") 		/ / / / -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 3-Aug-2012 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 3-Aug-2012 23:00 UT .