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 6 August 2012
⇐20120805 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20120807⇒

NOAA
10 Active Regions
11530
11532
11535
11537
11538
11539
11540
11541
11534
11536
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11530 Hsx 4(0) 1(0) 0(0)
11532 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11535 Cso 12(15) 2(1) 0(1)
11537 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11538 Dso 20(25) 4(1) 0(1)
11539 Hrx 5(5) 0(1) 0(1)
11540 Dso 20(20) 4(1) 0(1)
11541 Axx 2(5) 0(1) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

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Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11530 S18W91
(898",-288") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0120/0100 01/01 -
11532 S19W79
(878",-324") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0210/0240 01/04 /C1.8(02:20)
11535 N18W29
(437",206") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0090/0100 06/10 -
11537 N13W05
(80",112") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0040/0050 01/01 -
11538 S22W11
(167",-446") 		β/βγ Dso/Eso 0140/0220 08/08 -
11539 S23E05
(-76",-462") 		α/β Hrx/Cro 0010/0020 01/03 -
11540 S27E19
(-275",-514") 		β/β Dso/Cao 0110/0090 08/08 -
11541 S16E24
(-371",-350") 		α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0000 01/01 -
11534 N23W67
(802",331") 		/ / / / -
11536 S25W65
(777",-437") 		/β /Cso /0030 /03 -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C9.4(00:39) C1.0(03:29) C1.1(07:09) C6.3(08:10) C1.7(10:16) C1.6(11:30) C2.3(14:01) M1.6(04:33) /C1.1(05:46)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 6-Aug-2012 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 6-Aug-2012 23:00 UT .