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 19 October 2012
⇐20121018 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20121020⇒

NOAA
10 Active Regions
11586
11589
11590
11591
11593
11594
11596
11597
11592
11595
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11586 Hsx 4(1) 1(1) 0(1)
11589 Bxi 0(25) 0(1) 0(1)
11590 Bxo 5(1) 1(1) 0(1)
11591 Hsx 4(1) 1(1) 0(1)
11593 Hax 7(10) 2(1) 0(1)
11594 Cro 9(25) 1(1) 0(1)
11596 Eao 31(60) 9(10) 0(1)
11597 Dro 17(25) 5(1) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

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Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11586 S13W91
(938",-214") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0050/0060 01/01 -
11589 N12W57
(792",150") 		β/β Bxi/Dsi 0020/0090 13/14 C1.3(01:06)
11590 S30W41
(548",-540") 		β/β Bxo/Cro 0010/0010 02/03 -
11591 N08W20
(327",48") 		α/β Hsx/Dso 0170/0130 01/06 -
11593 N18E24
(-374",217") 		α/α Hax/Hax 0030/0040 03/01 -
11594 S27E11
(-164",-517") 		β/β Cro/Dao 0040/0050 04/04 C1.7(18:42)
11596 N11E61
(-828",139") 		β/- Eao/--- 0300/---- 04/-- C1.8(05:10)
11597 S21W42
(603",-408") 		β/- Dro/--- 0020/---- 04/-- -
11592 N24W46
(634",332") 		/ / / / -
11595 S14W67
(861",-267") 		/α /Axx /0010 /01 -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 19-Oct-2012 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 19-Oct-2012 21:00 UT .