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29 November 2014
20141128 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20141130

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

12216
12217
12218
12219
12220
12221
12222
12223

Dao/Cai
Cao/Eai
Hsx/Hsx
Ekc/Dai
Bxo/Axx
Eac/Dai
Ehc/Dai
Bxo/Bxo
Bxo/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
N/A 36 25
N/A 22 20
N/A 5 5
N/A 93 95
N/A 6 5
N/A 81 65
N/A 99 99
N/A 6 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
N/A 7 5
N/A 3 1
N/A 3 1
N/A 82 35
N/A 1 1
N/A 30 15
N/A 74 35
N/A 1 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
N/A 0 1
N/A 0 1
N/A 0 1
N/A 20 5
N/A 0 1
N/A 14 1
N/A 0 5
N/A 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
12216 S13W53
(758",-229")
β/β Dao/Cai 0200/0200 10/20 -
12217 S20W12
(190",-350")
β/βγ Cao/Eai 0070/0130 05/15 -
12218 N16E02
(-32",251")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0140/0140 01/01 -
12219 N04W47
(711",55")
βγ/βγ Ekc/Dai 0250/0200 16/16 C6.5(13:21)
C1.7(12:42)
C1.2(11:37)
C2.1(08:58)
C1.6(07:03)
/ C3.1(20:12)
12220 S16W40
(602",-282")
β/α Bxo/Axx 0010/0010 02/02 -
12221 N04E30
(-486",52")
βγ/β Eac/Dai 0200/0160 16/10 -
12222 S20E31
(-472",-348")
βγ/βγ Ehc/Dai 0330/0120 17/10 C4.0(09:57)
C6.7(08:16)
/ C2.0(11:16)
C2.9(04:18)
C1.5(02:33)
12223 N17W38
(574",271")
β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 05/01 -
12224 S24E16
(-245",-412")
β/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 04/-- C4.0(00:00) / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C4.3(01:24) C4.2(01:44) C7.5(00:29)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 29-Nov-2014 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 29-Nov-2014 22:35 UT .