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16 April 2024
20240415 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240417

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13628
13633
13634
13635
13636
13637
13638
13639
13641
13642
13643

Hsx/Hax
Hsx/Cso
Ehi/Dki
Bxo/Cso
Cso/Cso
Bxo/Cso
Cao/Hsx
Eai/Cao
Dao/Dao
Bxo/---
Dai/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
7 5 0
6 5 15
63 80 70
9 6 5
14 17 15
9 6 15
23 22 50
43 71 80
27 36 30
... 6 10
... 66 50
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
1 3 0
0 3 1
0 43 30
1 1 1
1 3 1
1 1 1
3 3 5
11 29 40
4 7 5
... 1 1
... 16 10
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 0
0 0 1
0 6 5
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 1 10
0 0 1
... 0 1
... 2 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13628 N05W91
(951",81")
α/α Hsx/Hax 0060/0120 01/02 -
13633 S10W65
(854",-127")
α/β Hsx/Cso 0080/0080 01/02 -
13634 N25W56
(719",448")
β/β Ehi/Dki 0300/0290 23/18 - / C2.9(22:18)
C4.3(19:05)
13635 N22W28
(417",431")
β/β Bxo/Cso 0010/0020 03/05 -
13636 S18E06
(-95",-209")
β/β Cso/Cso 0090/0080 03/04 C2.0(20:01) / -
13637 S12E25
(-396",-118")
β/β Bxo/Cso 0010/0040 02/04 -
13638 S17E30
(-458",-203")
β/α Cao/Hsx 0080/0030 04/01 -
13639 N30E35
(-476",541")
βγ/β Eai/Cao 0240/0030 14/07 -
13641 N11W15
(243",268")
β/β Dao/Dao 0090/0070 19/08 -
13642 N18W25
(385",373")
β/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 05/-- -
13643 S10E49
(-712",-107")
β/- Dai/--- 0100/---- 08/-- -
13640 N21E30
(-447",415")
/α /Axx /0010 /01 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.7(00:58) C2.6(01:30) C1.9(07:10) C2.2(07:51) C4.0(10:06) C4.8(15:27) C3.3(15:38) C3.7(16:07) C2.9(16:29) C5.3(17:18) M1.1(17:49) C2.5(18:23) C2.6(18:33) C4.4(20:41) C5.3(21:39) C3.9(23:49) M4.0(19:25)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 16-Apr-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 16-Apr-2024 23:30 UT .