Aurora Forecast for Thursday, December 16, 2010
| Name of forecaster: Charles Deehr
Time of prediction: 12/15/2010 11:21:00 AM* |
| Forecast: Auroral activity will be active. Weather permitting, active auroral displays will be visible overhead from Barrow to Anchorage and Juneau, and visible low on the horizon from King Salmon, Prince Rupert, Bismark and Montreal. |
| Additional Forecaster comments: A solar event occurred on Dec 14th that may produce auroral displays greater than our auroral forecast index 4, sometime after midnight (0836 Greenwich time) on the 16th of Dec. This means the shock may reach Earth sometime around midnight on Dec 15 in North America. Depending on the character of the disturbance following the shock, viewing may be good on the night of the 16th and 17th. Auroral Index 4 means Kp=4: Auroral activity will be active. Weather permitting, active auroral displays will be visible overhead from Inuvik, Yellowknife, Rankin and Igaluit to Juneau, Edmonton, Winnipeg and Sept-Iles, and visible low on the horizon from Vancouver, Great Falls, Pierre, Madison, Lansing, Ottawa, Portland and St. Johns for North America. This is the description of the event: Time: 2010 12 14 1503 UT Location: N16W55 Shock velocity: Vs = 1000 km/sec Duration: Tau = 4 hr. Solar Wind velocity: Vsw = 625 km/sec Our model predicts the following: Mach 4.3 shock will reach Earth 2010 12 16 0836Z Total propagation time 41h 33m |
| * Alaska Daylight Time (AKDT) is 8 hours behind Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) or Universal Time (UT). Alaska Standard Time (AKST) is 9 hours behind GMT or UT. |