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31 May 2011
20110530 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20110601

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.

Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
Number of Spots
11222 N16W91
β/α Dso/Axx 0150/0000 03/02 -
11224 N20W68
βγ/βδ Dso/Cai 0140/0130 09/10 -
11225 N17E06
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0040/0040 01/01 -
11226 S21E30
βγ/βδ Dki/Eki 0360/0360 11/12 C1.7(05:29)
/ C3.5(05:46)
11227 S18E42
βγ/β Dsi/Cso 0170/0080 06/03 C1.8(04:34)
/ C2.8(10:48)
11228 N17E43
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0110/0120 01/01 -
11229 N16E26
β/- Cao/--- 0030/---- 04/-- -
11219 N15W67
/ / / / -
11223 S17W48
/α /Hsx /0020 /01 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 31-May-2011 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 31-May-2011 20:30 UT .