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1 November 2024
20241031 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20241102

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13868
13869
13872
13873
13874
13875
13876
13877
13878
13879
13880

Hsx/Hsx
Dkc/Ekc
Dko/Dko
Cao/Hax
Eai/Eai
Dai/Cri
Dki/Ekc
Axx/Axx
Eki/Eki
Hhx/Hhx
Axx/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
3 5 10
80 80 65
35 56 40
26 22 10
62 71 55
0 66 60
75 73 65
2 3 5
75 81 65
12 6 20
... 3 10
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 3 1
30 49 25
7 23 15
5 3 1
19 29 15
39 16 20
12 30 25
0 1 1
23 42 25
3 8 5
... 1 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
6 9 5
1 3 1
0 0 1
0 1 5
0 2 1
0 4 5
0 0 1
3 7 5
0 1 1
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13868 S11W71
(898",-207")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0150/0150 01/01 -
13869 S18W45
(651",-347")
βγδ/βγδ Dkc/Ekc 0260/0290 12/19 -
13872 S17W36
(545",-338")
β/β Dko/Dko 0240/0320 06/04 -
13873 S12W27
(430",-264")
β/α Cao/Hax 0040/0040 04/09 -
13874 N25W72
(834",387")
β/βγ Eai/Eai 0200/0140 07/12 -
13875 N28W53
(683",415")
β/β Dai/Cri 0150/0030 15/13 - / M2.4(12:41)
13876 S06W58
(817",-139")
βγ/βγ Dki/Ekc 0200/0340 18/25 -
13877 S16W16
(257",-333")
α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 01/01 M1.1(09:46)
/ M2.8(22:40)
M1.0(18:57)
13878 N16E11
(-178",198")
βγδ/βγδ Eki/Eki 0400/0350 11/15 -
13879 N15E38
(-576",195")
α/α Hhx/Hhx 0570/0450 01/01 -
13880 S13E43
(-644",-268")
α/- Axx/--- 0010/---- 01/-- -
13865 S22W91
(895",-359")
/ / / / -
13866 S12W90
(945",-200")
/ / / / -
13871 S09W63
(852",-183")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C5.4(08:04) C8.5(12:19) C6.3(16:24) C6.2(17:19) M1.3(02:05) M1.3(12:39) M2.0(14:18) C9.2(10:19) C4.7(18:21) C4.8(18:31) C6.3(20:14) M1.4(09:22) M1.2(13:46) M4.6(21:03) M9.5(21:45) X2.0(21:12)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 1-Nov-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 1-Nov-2024 20:30 UT .