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4 December 2024
20241203 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20241205

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13905
13906
13910
13912
13913
13914
13915
13916

Eso/Eso
Eko/Eko
Cso/Cso
Eai/Esi
Hrx/Cro
Axx/Bxo
Bxo/Bxo
Cai/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
27 32 30
72 61 55
14 17 15
50 71 55
5 6 10
3 3 5
8 6 10
... 40 50
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
2 11 5
11 21 15
1 3 1
15 29 15
0 1 1
0 1 1
1 1 1
... 12 10
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
4 2 1
0 0 1
0 1 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 0 0

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13905 S09W91
(960",-152")
βγ/βγ Eso/Eso 0140/0180 04/05 -
13906 S16W88
(934",-268")
βγ/βγ Eko/Eko 0310/0350 07/13 -
13910 N16W37
(564",264")
β/β Cso/Cso 0170/0230 09/04 -
13912 S05W01
(16",-91")
β/βγ Eai/Esi 0160/0100 16/10 C4.4(14:47) / -
13913 S06W18
(300",-108")
α/β Hrx/Cro 0010/0030 01/02 C3.9(04:48)
C5.6(03:14)
/ C2.2(21:11)
C1.9(20:41)
C2.0(19:50)
C2.9(18:15)
C2.4(14:03)
C2.1(13:17)
13914 N07W40
(623",114")
α/β Axx/Bxo 0010/0010 01/05 -
13915 N15E44
(-655",248")
β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 03/04 -
13916 S16E60
(-811",-271")
β/- Cai/--- 0040/---- 05/-- -
13908 N13W68
(880",216")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C3.5(06:06) C3.6(06:47) C3.3(08:52) C3.5(06:06) C3.6(06:47) C3.3(08:52) C3.5(11:37) C3.0(15:28) C2.5(18:09) C2.3(18:33) M2.3(09:52) M2.3(09:52) C6.1(05:34) C3.4(09:52) C5.4(22:36)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 4-Dec-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 4-Dec-2024 20:30 UT .