show styles

 4 October 2001
⇐20011003 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20011005⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09633 N21W82
(881",323") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0070/0080 01/03 -
09634 N11W77
(911",153") 		βγδ/αγδ Cao/Hsx 0060/0050 06/04 -
09636 N13W70
(873",172") 		βγδ/βγδ Dai/Eac 0200/0250 12/18 -
09637 S15W63
(821",-297") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dao 0080/0090 04/09 -
09639 N04W78
(930",41") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0030/0040 01/02 -
09640 N10W27
(427",58") 		βγδ/βγδ Bxo/Cao 0010/0020 06/10 -
09641 S14W20
(317",-339") 		βγδ/βγδ Cao/Dao 0180/0250 10/11 -
09642 N05E01
(-16",-37") 		αγδ/αγδ Hax/Hsx 0020/0040 01/01 -
09644 N19W45
(638",228") 		αγδ/βγδ Hsx/Cso 0010/0030 01/07 -
09645 S18W41
(596",-379") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dso 0100/0030 08/10 -
09646 N12W02
(32",79") 		αγδ/βγδ Hrx/Bxo 0010/0010 01/02 -
09648 S05E50
(-728",-159") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0080/0050 01/01 -
09649 S06E56
(-787",-165") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0030/0030 01/01 -
09650 S12E58
(-791",-259") 		βγδ/βγδ Cao/Cao 0070/0070 03/03 -
09651 S22W26
(388",-455") 		βγδ/- Cso/--- 0030/---- 05/-- -
09652 N22W00
(0",243") 		βγδ/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 02/-- -
09653 S23E62
(-775",-421") 		αγδ/- Hax/--- 0060/---- 01/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 04-Oct-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 04-Oct-2001 23:30 .