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5 June 2002
20020604 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20020606

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
Number of Spots
09970 N06W81
βγ/βγ Cso/Dso 0040/0040 03/02 -
09972 S21W50
αγ/βγ Axx/Cro 0000/0020 01/03 -
09973 S16W30
βγ/βγ Esi/Fki 0430/0570 32/29 -
09974 N14W37
αγ/αγ Hrx/Hrx 0010/0020 02/02 -
09975 N21W34
βγ/βγ Dso/Dso 0050/0030 08/07 -
09978 S20W07
βγ/βγ Dao/Dai 0210/0250 14/15 -
09979 S29E10
βγ/βγ Cso/Dri 0040/0060 06/09 -
09980 S26W47
βγ/βγ Cso/Cso 0020/0010 05/03 -
09981 S22E29
αγ/αγ Hsx/Hax 0040/0050 01/01 -
09982 S04E35
αγ/αγ Hrx/Hrx 0010/0020 02/01 -
09983 N23E29
αγ/αγ Hsx/Hsx 0030/0010 01/01 -
09984 N20W25
αγ/αγ Axx/Axx 0010/0010 02/02 -
09985 N17E15
βγ/βγ Dao/Dao 0090/0090 11/11 -
09986 N03E58
αγ/αγ Hax/Hax 0060/0060 01/01 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 05-Jun-2002 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 05-Jun-2002 23:30 .