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 25 July 2002
⇐20020724 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20020726⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
10035 S09W73
(900",-182") 		βγδ/βγδ Eao/Eao 0070/0080 09/13 -
10036 S07W56
(785",-182") 		βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Ekc 0820/0910 46/59 -
10037 N14W46
(666",148") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0150/0180 02/01 -
10038 N17W02
(31",162") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dso 0060/0080 11/09 -
10039 S15E34
(-516",-341") 		βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Fkc 0940/0940 39/22 -
10040 S20W43
(612",-406") 		βγδ/αγδ Cro/Axx 0020/0010 06/02 -
10041 N17W18
(282",167") 		βγδ/βγδ Cro/Cao 0010/0020 02/03 -
10042 S20W00
(0",-437") 		βγδ/βγδ Cao/Bxo 0030/0010 06/04 -
10043 N12E27
(-424",92") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Bxo 0080/0020 09/05 -
10044 S20E29
(-435",-423") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dao 0120/0140 14/08 -
10045 N04E03
(-49",-54") 		βγδ/βγδ Cao/Cao 0020/0020 04/04 -
10046 N14E08
(-129",113") 		βγδ/βγδ Cso/Cso 0010/0010 02/02 -
10047 N07W62
(836",59") 		βγδ/- Cso/--- 0020/---- 02/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 25-Jul-2002 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 25-Jul-2002 23:30 .