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15 August 2002
20020814 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20020816

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
Number of Spots
10061 N08W83
αγδ/βγ Hsx/Cao 0110/0080 02/06 -
10063 N18W40
βγδ/βγ Eso/Eao 0110/0180 11/09 -
10065 S07W40
αγδ/αγδ Axx/Axx 0000/0000 01/01 -
10066 N13W11
βγδ/βγ Dai/Dao 0140/0070 14/19 -
10067 N11E06
βγδ/βγ Eao/Dso 0210/0110 29/12 -
10068 S08E07
βγδ/βγ Eao/Eso 0070/0110 04/07 -
10069 S08E23
βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Ekc 1520/1210 25/19 -
10072 S17W74
βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dao 0210/0160 06/09 -
10075 S12W10
βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dro 0040/0040 06/05 -
10076 N12E37
αγδ/αγδ Hax/Hsx 0040/0060 01/01 -
10077 S17E19
αγδ/αγδ Axx/Hsx 0000/0010 01/01 -
10078 S13W26
βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dso 0030/0030 09/09 -
10079 S20E41
αγδ/αγδ Hax/Hax 0020/0020 01/01 -
10080 N16E55
βγδ/βγδ Eao/Eao 0120/0120 04/04 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 15-Aug-2002 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 15-Aug-2002 23:30 .