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16 August 2002
20020815 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20020817

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
Number of Spots
10061 N06W91
αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0080/0110 01/02 -
10063 N17W53
βγδ/βγδ Eso/Eso 0140/0110 10/11 -
10066 N14W24
βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dai 0130/0140 21/14 -
10067 N12W07
βγδ/βγδ Eai/Eao 0290/0210 40/29 -
10068 S07W07
βγδ/βγδ Eso/Eao 0060/0070 08/04 -
10069 S07E10
βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Ekc 1400/1520 44/25 -
10072 S18W91
βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dao 0310/0210 05/06 -
10075 S11W25
βγδ/βγδ Cso/Dso 0030/0040 05/06 -
10076 N12E24
αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hax 0040/0040 01/01 -
10078 S13W40
βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dso 0060/0030 08/09 -
10079 S19E28
βγδ/αγδ Dso/Hax 0120/0020 11/01 -
10080 N16E41
βγδ/βγδ Dso/Eao 0160/0120 07/04 -
10081 N17E47
βγδ/- Dro/--- 0050/---- 02/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 16-Aug-2002 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 16-Aug-2002 23:30 .