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 5 September 2002
⇐20020904 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20020906⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
10090 S04W91
(946",-63") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0040/0090 01/01 -
10094 S18W28
(425",-391") 		β/β Cso/Cho 0130/0140 02/05 -
10095 N08W17
(276",19") 		βγ/βγ Fkc/Fki 0550/0750 39/64 -
10096 S16W01
(15",-374") 		βγ/β Dai/Dso 0160/0120 20/17 -
10097 N13W33
(505",116") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0080/0070 15/19 -
10098 S10E11
(-179",-278") 		β/α Cao/Axx 0020/0040 04/03 -
10099 S04W29
(461",-169") 		β/β Cso/Dao 0040/0080 05/14 -
10100 S20E17
(-261",-429") 		β/β Cao/Dao 0190/0160 07/08 -
10101 N02E16
(-262",-80") 		β/α Cao/Hax 0040/0070 03/03 -
10102 N08E25
(-399",25") 		α/α Hax/Hsx 0020/0040 01/02 -
10103 N14E46
(-664",148") 		β/β Dao/Dai 0110/0130 08/09 -
10091 N06W81
(933",80") 		/ / / / -
10093 S16W79
(896",-281") 		/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 05-Sep-2002 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 05-Sep-2002 23:30 .