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 9 November 2002
⇐20021108 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20021110⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
10175 N15W91
(917",245") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0040/0030 01/02 C7.9(17:47)
C4.1(15:19) / -
10176 N10W69
(874",122") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0140/0120 01/01 -
10177 N18W64
(813",242") 		β/β Dso/Dao 0220/0210 08/14 -
10180 S10W42
(627",-250") 		βγδ/βγδ Fkc/Fkc 0600/0590 58/66 C6.3(11:44)
C1.6(04:22)
C1.5(00:18)
/ C7.4(17:57)
10182 S18W25
(383",-394") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0070/0070 01/01 -
10184 S05W29
(460",-185") 		α/ Axx/ 0010/ 03/ M4.6(13:08) / -
10185 S12W04
(65",-312") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0170/0190 16/19 -
10186 N20W51
(695",253") 		β/β Bxo/Cro 0010/0030 04/05 -
10187 N08W32
(500",32") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0020 04/04 -
10188 N10W20
(321",54") 		β/β Dsi/Dao 0110/0110 17/16 -
10189 N13E18
(-287",103") 		β/β Cso/Bxo 0030/0020 04/02 -
10190 S22E28
(-414",-450") 		β/β Cao/Bxo 0040/0030 04/07 -
10191 S17E60
(-787",-332") 		α/- Hsx/--- 0060/---- 01/-- -
10174 S26W87
(852",-418") 		/ / / / -
10179 S01W35
(546",-113") 		/α /Axx /0010 /02 -
10181 S07W49
(713",-192") 		/ / / / C4.7(09:44)
C2.8(01:30)
/ C1.3(22:16)
C2.0(13:51)
C5.8(12:19)
C1.9(10:51)
C2.7(10:01)
C2.1(08:29)
C1.3(05:01)

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 09-Nov-2002 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 09-Nov-2002 23:30 .