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25 July 2023
20230724 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20230726

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13372
13373
13376
13377
13378
13379
13380
13381
13382
13383

Hsx/Cko
Eao/Ekc
Dao/Hsx
Dho/Dso
Hax/Hax
Dko/Fho
Cao/Cso
Bxo/---
Hsx/---
Axx/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 5 0
63 44 25
27 36 45
15 43 35
7 8 10
0 56 35
11 22 20
... 6 5
... 5 10
... 3 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 3 0
0 13 5
9 7 10
15 13 5
0 3 1
0 23 10
3 3 5
... 1 1
... 3 1
... 1 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 0
0 1 1
0 0 5
0 1 1
0 0 1
0 3 1
0 0 1
... 0 1
... 0 1
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13372 N24W91
(862",383")
α/β Hsx/Cko 0120/0260 01/04 -
13373 N08W85
(931",123")
βγ/β Eao/Ekc 0240/0400 13/23 -
13376 N23W67
(801",336")
β/α Dao/Hsx 0070/0060 04/01 -
13377 S09W35
(536",-217")
β/β Dho/Dso 0260/0200 05/03 -
13378 S26W70
(798",-439")
α/α Hax/Hax 0030/0040 01/02 -
13379 N14W09
(143",145")
β/βγ Dko/Fho 0280/0280 05/10 -
13380 S11E40
(-597",-245")
β/β Cao/Cso 0120/0060 06/04 -
13381 S18W71
(850",-317")
β/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 04/-- -
13382 N19W04
(62",225")
α/- Hsx/--- 0010/---- 01/-- C4.2(20:48)
C2.9(20:23) / -
13383 N14E06
(-96",144")
α/- Axx/--- 0005/---- 01/-- -
13374 S08W81
(924",-144")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.4(00:32) C2.3(03:45) C2.0(04:03) C2.6(05:55) C3.9(06:54) C3.2(08:14) C3.2(12:42) C2.7(14:12) C2.2(15:58) C2.1(16:41) M1.5(01:36) M1.6(21:08) C2.0(08:43) C2.2(15:03) C1.9(16:39) C2.5(17:17) C2.8(17:54) C2.4(23:23)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 25-Jul-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 25-Jul-2023 23:30 UT .