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16 October 2013
20131015 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20131017

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11861 Dho 29(70) 2(15) 2(1)
11864 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11865 Dao 23(20) 6(5) 0(1)
11867 Cro 9(1) 1(1) 0(1)
11869 Cro 9(20) 1(5) 0(1)
11870 Cro 9(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11871 Hrx 5(10) 0(1) 0(1)
11872 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
11861 S10W59
(814",-215")
β/βγ Dho/Dho 0480/0400 17/09 C1.4(13:54)
C1.8(09:10)
/ C1.8(17:04)
C1.5(04:09)
C2.4(01:40)
11863 S17W89
(919",-281")
β/β Cro/Cro 0010/0020 02/03 -
11864 S23W46
(638",-436")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0060/0070 01/01 -
11865 S21W35
(516",-417")
βγδ/βγδ Dao/Cai 0090/0120 11/10 C8.9(14:26)
/ M1.3(23:31)
C3.3(20:04)
C6.5(15:22)
C4.4(14:37)
C2.2(14:14)
C2.9(10:25)
M1.8(08:26)
C2.8(08:13)
M1.1(08:00)
C2.8(07:48)
C9.5(05:04)
C1.9(03:23)
11867 N24W70
(827",360")
β/β Cro/Dao 0020/0040 04/05 C1.9(17:39) / -
11868 N17E09
(-144",190")
α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 01/01 -
11869 N20E30
(-453",250")
β/β Cro/Dso 0030/0040 02/02 -
11870 S14W35
(537",-308")
β/β Cro/Cro 0020/0030 08/03 -
11871 N17E32
(-489",202")
α/α Hrx/Hsx 0020/0030 01/01 -
11872 S15E53
(-744",-304")
α/- Hsx/--- 0060/---- 01/-- -
11860 S28W85
(846",-456")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.5(03:32) C3.7(05:20)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 16-Oct-2013 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 16-Oct-2013 23:35 UT .