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22 February 2014
20140221 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20140223

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11976 Hax 8(30) 3(10) 0(1)
11977 Cro 13(15) 2(1) 0(1)
11981 Dai 66(60) 16(10) 2(1)
11982 Dkc 80(80) 49(40) 9(5)
11984 Bxo 6(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11985 Bxo 6(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11986 Cao 22(20) 3(1) 0(1)
11987 Hax 8(25) 3(5) 0(1)

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
11976 S13W91
(944",-218")
α/α Hax/Hax 0060/0130 01/03 C1.8(02:37) / -
11977 S09W83
(950",-136")
β/β Cro/Cai 0020/0040 05/07 - / C1.7(16:00)
11981 S07W06
(101",0")
β/β Dai/Dsi 0190/0190 19/20 -
11982 S10E07
(-116",-50")
βγ/βγ Dkc/Dkc 0520/0490 38/35 C1.7(09:10) / -
11984 S16W08
(130",-151")
β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 02/02 -
11985 N08W83
(953",148")
β/α Bxo/Axx 0010/0010 02/01 -
11986 N14E36
(-554",327")
β/β Cao/Bxo 0030/0010 04/02 -
11987 S03E59
(-831",11")
α/- Hax/--- 0030/---- 01/-- -
11980 S13W91
(944",-218")
/ / / / - / C1.9(11:01)
11983 S14W12
(196",-119")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.5(06:04) C1.8(13:20)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 22-Feb-2014 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 22-Feb-2014 20:35 UT .