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6 July 2014
20140705 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20140707

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

12102
12104
12106
12107
12108
12109
12110
12111
12112
12103

Cro/Cro
Cao/Dai
Dkc/Dkc
Dao/Dao
Ehi/Eho
Dki/Dai
Ekc/Ekc
Dro/Bxo
Dao/Cao
Bxo/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
N/A 22 15
N/A 80 60
N/A 36 25
N/A 80 40
N/A 73 90
N/A 93 90
N/A 17 5
N/A 36 25
N/A 6 5
N/A ... 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
N/A 3 1
N/A 49 10
N/A 7 1
N/A 43 5
N/A 30 40
N/A 82 50
N/A 6 1
N/A 7 1
N/A 1 1
N/A ... 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
N/A 0 1
N/A 9 1
N/A 0 1
N/A 6 1
N/A 4 5
N/A 20 10
N/A 0 1
N/A 0 1
N/A 0 1
N/A ... 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
12100 N10W68
(862",142")
β/β Cro/Cro 0020/0030 04/09 -
12102 N11W38
(572",135")
β/β Cao/Dai 0030/0070 07/13 -
12104 S12W28
(434",-246")
βγ/βγ Dkc/Dkc 0390/0470 21/21 -
12106 N15W20
(312",192")
β/βγ Dao/Dao 0120/0140 05/12 -
12107 S21W17
(258",-390")
βγ/βγ Ehi/Eho 0260/0290 14/09 -
12108 S08E02
(-32",-188")
βγ/βγ Dki/Dai 0350/0120 27/16 -
12109 S08E22
(-351",-184")
βγ/βγ Ekc/Ekc 0830/0630 23/20 -
12110 S16E08
(-126",-315")
β/β Dro/Bxo 0010/0010 06/05 -
12111 N06E40
(-605",54")
β/β Dao/Cao 0070/0070 04/04 -
12112 S19W56
(741",-337")
β/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 02/-- -
12103 S10W60
(806",-192")
/ / / / -
12105 S05W71
(889",-100")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 6-Jul-2014 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 6-Jul-2014 23:35 UT .