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15 March 2016
20160314 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20160316

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

12513
12519
12521
12522

Hsx/Hsx
Hsx/Cso
Dao/Dao
Cao/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
N/A 5 5
N/A 5 5
N/A 36 25
N/A 22 20
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
N/A 3 1
N/A 3 1
N/A 7 1
N/A 3 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
N/A 0 1
N/A 0 1
N/A 0 1
N/A 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
12513 N08W91
(954",131")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0020/0040 01/01 -
12519 N05W04
(67",203")
α/β Hsx/Cso 0080/0080 01/05 -
12521 N19W20
(312",419")
β/β Dao/Dao 0080/0080 12/07 C1.0(15:32)
C1.2(09:23) / -
12522 N14W68
(868",275")
β/- Cao/--- 0040/---- 03/-- -
12520 N04W25
(408",175")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 15-Mar-2016 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 15-Mar-2016 19:30 UT .