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18 June 2022
20220617 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20220619

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13030
13031
13032
13033
13034
13035
13037
13038

Dai/Dai
Esi/Esi
Cso/Hsx
Cro/Dao
Cso/Hsx
Bxo/Cao
Csi/Dso
Dro/Cro
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
49 66 50
68 84 50
10 17 10
3 13 5
10 17 5
14 6 5
... 44 10
9 17 40
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
10 16 15
10 21 15
0 3 1
0 2 1
0 3 1
3 1 1
... 8 1
0 6 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 2 5
0 2 5
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 1 1
0 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13030 N17W47
(662",260")
β/β Dai/Dai 0080/0120 17/13 - / C1.9(15:30)
C4.3(14:55)
C2.5(13:02)
C4.2(11:38)
C5.6(10:52)
C2.7(06:10)
13031 S27W58
(714",-440")
βγ/βγ Esi/Esi 0140/0180 15/20 -
13032 N20W34
(497",305")
β/α Cso/Hsx 0070/0080 02/03 C1.8(13:22) / -
13033 N16W14
(220",238")
β/β Cro/Dao 0020/0050 06/08 -
13034 N01W02
(33",-7")
β/α Cso/Hsx 0060/0090 01/01 -
13035 S18E01
(-15",-315")
β/β Bxo/Cao 0020/0100 11/09 -
13037 S21W69
(823",-346")
β/β Csi/Dso 0060/0040 13/08 -
13038 N15E21
(-328",223")
β/β Dro/Cro 0060/0010 07/03 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.4(00:00) C2.1(00:11) C1.8(11:26) C1.8(11:48) C1.4(17:34) C4.8(20:53) C4.6(00:44) C1.6(02:21) C1.1(04:26) C2.0(06:47) C3.3(18:18)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 18-Jun-2022 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 18-Jun-2022 23:30 UT .