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6 November 2022
20221105 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20221107

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13131
13135
13136
13137
13139
13140
13141

Hsx/Hsx
Cso/Cso
Axx/Axx
Cro/Cro
Axx/Bxo
Hsx/Hsx
Dao/Hsx
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
3 5 5
14 17 10
2 3 5
7 13 10
3 3 5
3 5 5
27 36 35
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 3 0
1 3 0
0 1 0
1 2 0
0 1 0
0 3 0
9 7 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13131 N24W91
(883",393")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0050/0100 01/01 -
13135 N26W52
(687",388")
β/β Cso/Cso 0080/0090 03/02 -
13136 S08W31
(495",-189")
α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 01/01 -
13137 N37W02
(27",531")
β/β Cro/Cro 0030/0030 02/03 -
13139 N28E11
(-163",399")
α/β Axx/Bxo 0010/0010 01/02 -
13140 N26E39
(-549",379")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0110/0120 01/01 -
13141 N14E51
(-731",194")
β/α Dao/Hsx 0190/0150 03/01 -
13133 N23W88
(890",375")
/ / / / -
13138 S39W55
(617",-637")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.2(01:10) C1.7(11:58) C1.3(15:06) C3.5(17:02) C3.7(17:17)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 6-Nov-2022 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 6-Nov-2022 20:30 UT .