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29 April 2023
20230428 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20230430

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13285
13288
13289
13291
13292

Cao/Cao
Bxo/Bxo
Ehi/Eki
Dsi/Dao
Cro/Cro
Hrx/Hrx
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
17 22 25
71 80 95
22 58 50
7 13 30
4 6 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
2 3 5
28 43 25
5 12 10
1 2 5
0 1 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 6 5
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13285 S18W37
(547",-239")
β/β Cao/Cao 0220/0240 05/05 C4.3(19:49)
C2.4(16:11)
C5.2(13:15)
C2.1(12:44)
C8.9(10:04)
C2.9(03:48)
/ C6.2(23:20)
C4.2(20:16)
13286 S11W28
(440",-119")
β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 04/03 -
13288 S23W33
(479",-316")
βγδ/βγδ Ehi/Eki 0390/0380 23/29 -
13289 N20E23
(-350",388")
β/β Dsi/Dao 0180/0180 10/05 -
13291 N08W29
(458",195")
β/β Cro/Cro 0030/0030 08/20 -
13292 N15E29
(-447",307")
α/α Hrx/Hrx 0020/0010 01/01 -
13284 S08W91
(942",-133")
/ / / / -
13287 S25W07
(105",-338")
/ / / / C4.5(19:03)
C6.0(14:16)
C4.4(08:31)
C1.9(06:10)
C2.1(02:46) / -
13290 N24W87
(868",389")
/β /Bxo /0010 /03 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.5(01:15) C6.1(13:46) C4.2(18:13) C3.2(19:14) C2.7(19:53) C7.2(21:10) C5.5(22:25)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 29-Apr-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 29-Apr-2023 23:30 UT .