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19 June 2023
20230618 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20230620

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13331
13332
13333
13335
13336
13338
13339
13340
13337

Hsx/Hsx
Axx/
Eai/Eai
Eki/Eki
Cro/Cro
Cao/Cso
Hsx/Hsx
Cao/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
3 5 5
... 3 5
62 71 55
75 81 60
7 13 15
11 22 25
3 5 5
... 22 25
... ... 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 3 1
... 1 1
19 29 15
23 42 15
1 2 1
3 3 5
0 3 1
... 3 5
... ... 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
... 0 1
0 1 1
3 7 5
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 0 1
... ... 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13331 S23W91
(868",-368")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0050/0060 02/02 C2.3(17:25) / -
13332 S10W85
(926",-166")
α/ Axx/ 0010/ 02/ -
13333 S11W33
(506",-201")
βγ/β Eai/Eai 0200/0240 13/18 -
13335 S15W04
(63",-269")
βγ/βγ Eki/Eki 0360/0390 18/18 C2.2(18:39)
C2.6(17:09)
C2.4(17:08)
C3.2(16:15)
C2.9(04:08) / -
13336 S22E03
(-45",-378")
β/β Cro/Cro 0030/0030 05/05 -
13338 N11E17
(-272",156")
β/β Cao/Cso 0120/0130 06/06 -
13339 S19E42
(-598",-326")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0120/0100 01/01 -
13340 N23E45
(-616",353")
β/- Cao/--- 0100/---- 06/-- -
13334 N16W07
(111",236")
/ / / / -
13337 N17E17
(-264",253")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C6.2(01:46) C2.3(03:27) C1.8(05:05) C1.9(07:05) C2.4(11:35) C2.1(12:28) C2.2(12:55) C1.9(13:55) C1.9(14:17) C1.9(14:26) C1.8(15:00) C2.4(16:52) M1.4(03:37) M1.2(12:06)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 19-Jun-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 19-Jun-2023 23:30 UT .