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14 July 2023
20230713 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20230715

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13361
13362
13363
13367
13370
13371
13372

Cso/Dsi
Hrx/Hrx
Dko/Dko
Axx/Bxo
Eai/Dai
Cro/Dro
Hax/Hax
Eko/Eki
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
11 17 10
4 6 5
35 56 35
69 71 25
0 13 5
7 8 10
57 61 50
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 3 1
0 1 1
7 23 10
20 29 5
0 2 1
0 3 1
13 21 15
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 0 1
1 3 5
1 1 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 2 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13361 N25W89
(855",396")
β/βγ Cso/Dsi 0150/0220 05/13 -
13362 S08W59
(802",-167")
α/α Hrx/Hrx 0020/0020 01/01 -
13363 S23W34
(487",-422")
βδ/βδ Dko/Dko 0800/0850 20/24 -
13364 N25W53
(684",360")
α/β Axx/Bxo 0000/0010 01/05 -
13367 N10W70
(874",139")
βδ/β Eai/Dai 0200/0160 16/18 -
13370 S15E07
(-111",-312")
β/β Cro/Dro 0020/0030 05/08 -
13371 S15E20
(-312",-308")
α/α Hax/Hax 0030/0030 02/02 -
13372 N24E39
(-544",333")
β/β Eko/Eki 0650/0650 16/13 -
13366 S18W91
(896",-289")
/α /Hsx /0090 /01 -
13368 S17W91
(901",-273")
/β /Dai /0080 /11 -
13369 S18W91
(896",-289")
/α /Axx /0000 /02 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C5.9(00:26) C2.4(06:24) C2.6(09:04) C2.1(10:46) C2.0(10:50) C7.1(11:34) C7.6(11:44) C3.5(13:28) C4.9(13:50) C2.1(15:21) C8.9(18:18) C3.7(19:34) C3.1(20:13) M1.0(09:22) C9.7(12:22) C4.7(16:48) C5.7(18:28) C3.6(22:22) C6.9(22:38) M2.1(18:55)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 14-Jul-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 14-Jul-2023 23:30 UT .