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22 September 2023
20230921 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20230923

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13433
13435
13437
13438
13439
13440
13441
13442
13443
13444

Hsx/Hsx
Dki/Dki
Dao/Dai
Dso/Dai
Dai/Cai
Hsx/Cao
Hsx/Hsx
Dri/Cro
Csi/Csi
Dao/---
Bxo/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
3 5 5
66 73 70
23 30 20
39 66 45
5 5 15
3 5 5
0 97 25
... 44 15
... 36 70
... 6 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 3 1
26 30 30
5 7 5
0 16 10
1 3 1
0 3 1
0 12 5
... 8 1
... 7 35
... 1 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
3 4 10
0 1 1
0 2 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 2 1
... 1 1
... 0 5
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13433 N28W68
(783",407")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0070/0090 01/01 -
13435 N08E02
(-33",16")
βδ/βδ Dki/Dki 0290/0300 04/04 C7.3(11:26)
M1.2(02:25)
/ M8.7(12:42)
13436 N23W91
(879",372")
β/β Dao/Dai 0100/0220 03/06 -
13437 S18W71
(860",-329")
β/β Dso/Dai 0140/0190 07/11 -
13438 N11W05
(82",66")
β/β Dai/Cai 0080/0070 09/11 -
13439 S25E04
(-60",-508")
α/β Hsx/Cao 0040/0030 01/02 -
13440 N17E19
(-298",172")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0060/0060 01/01 -
13441 N08W30
(474",31")
βγ/β Dri/Cro 0050/0020 06/04 -
13442 S10E25
(-399",-270")
βγ/β Csi/Csi 0030/0050 07/05 -
13443 N27W40
(549",351")
β/- Dao/--- 0040/---- 07/-- -
13444 N24E23
(-342",288")
β/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 03/-- -
13434 N08W91
(945",133")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C6.4(05:32) C6.5(06:56) C5.3(08:38) C3.8(12:22) C9.9(19:20) C3.3(20:18) C2.7(21:16) M1.4(15:53) M1.5(17:06) M1.9(22:25) C2.1(09:38) C2.5(10:09) C2.4(10:39) C2.6(14:16) C2.4(14:43) C3.2(15:59) C3.0(16:37)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 22-Sep-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 22-Sep-2023 23:30 UT .