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30 September 2023
20230929 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20231001

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13435
13440
13445
13447
13448
13449
13450

Hsx/Cso
Axx/Hrx
Cao/Dao
Cao/Csi
Hsx/Hsx
Csi/Dao
Eai/Dai
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
6 5 0
1 3 5
17 22 25
39 22 25
3 5 10
0 44 45
69 71 60
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 3 0
0 1 1
3 3 5
0 3 5
0 3 1
0 8 10
20 29 20
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 0
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 1 1
1 1 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13435 N10W91
(942",167")
α/β Hsx/Cso 0050/0090 01/03 -
13440 N18W86
(908",286")
α/α Axx/Hrx 0010/0020 01/01 -
13445 S14W79
(912",-251")
β/β Cao/Dao 0060/0140 03/09 -
13447 S22W59
(762",-410")
β/β Cao/Csi 0090/0120 03/07 -
13448 N13E05
(-81",105")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0100/0110 01/02 -
13449 N15W11
(177",140")
β/β Csi/Dao 0120/0090 10/09 -
13450 S19E29
(-440",-404")
βγ/β Eai/Dai 0140/0070 13/08 -
13442 S09W83
(939",-162")
/ / / / -
13444 N22W83
(881",343")
/ / / / -
13446 N23W50
(677",305")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C7.2(03:57) C7.1(05:34) C4.0(05:44) C8.0(05:56) C1.9(06:24) C2.4(06:51) C2.6(10:40) C9.6(11:51) C4.9(12:23) C4.0(14:05) C5.1(14:35) C6.3(15:57) C2.4(18:04) C4.7(18:15) C2.5(18:58) C3.2(20:26) C3.2(20:50) C6.2(21:18) C6.6(21:39) M1.2(16:16)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 30-Sep-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 30-Sep-2023 23:30 UT .